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Showing posts with label autocracy. Show all posts

Remembering the last days of a disgraced president

 In 2019 I wrote on this site:

All indications are that the GOP and the American people are prepared to collude in the transformation to an authoritarian regime

Well, they tried. And they're still trying. It almost worked in 2020. We were not saved by "our institutions" - we were only saved by a few individuals here and there and some good luck. There were a few election officials, many republican, that refused to go along with the coup. Some staffer in Congress grabbed the boxes containing the electoral college votes on January 6 at the last minute. A few Capitol police held ground long enough for members of Congress to find shelter and avoid being killed or kidnapped.

By Tyler Merbler from USA - DSC09265-2, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=98724490


Had any one of those accidents not happened, we could be living in a much different world right now.

With everything we're learning from the January 6th committee, along of course with everything we already knew, what we saw with our own eyes, we know there was a coup attempt. If they succeeded, they would have kept the former president in place, ignoring the will of the people, ignoring the vote, ignoring the Constitution, ignoring that the election wasn't even close, as Mitch McConnell himself stated on January 6. Now we know this coup plot was put to paper. They had a blueprint to use to prevent Congress from certifying the 2020 presidential election and ignore the devastating loss that Trump suffered and keep him in office anyway.

How quickly we forget.

After losing the election in 2020, the then-president went entirely AWOL. He was never particularly presidential or particularly attentive to his presidential duties, but after his 2020 election defeat, he was totally missing, focused only on the "big lie" and wanting nothing to do with affairs of state. This is who he is. This is what we would get if he runs and wins back the presidency. We will not get the "muted" version we had for four years. We're going to get the full off-the-rails version we saw for the two months up to when he boarded Marine One at the White House in Washington, DC, on January 20, 2021, the version of Trump that (finally) got him kicked off Twitter and Facebook.

Here's some of the crazy stuff that happened after he lost the election:

  • After vote counts showed a Biden victory, Trump engaged in what has been called a "post-election purge", firing or forcing out at least a dozen officials and replacing them with loyalists.
  • He and his associates filed a number of lawsuits contesting election processes, vote-counting, and the vote-certification process in multiple states. Courts dismissed more than 50 lawsuits of alleged electoral fraud and irregularities presented by Trump and allies. Trump's own U.S. election security officials have said the election was “the most secure in American history”.
  • He pressured Michigan officials not to certify the legal and valid election results.
  • He famously pressured  Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger to disqualify ballots and "find" him enough votes to win.
  • The Trump campaign requested a recount in Wisconsin counties known to be Democratic strongholds. The recounts ended up increasing Biden's lead by 87 votes.
  • Trump placed a call to Georgia governor Brian Kemp in which he urged the governor to call a special session of the state legislature to override the election results and appoint electors who would support Trump.
  • After legal efforts by Trump and his proxies had failed in numerous state and federal courts, including the Supreme Court, some right-wing activists and Trump allies – including Michael Flynn, Sidney Powell, and L. Lin Wood – suggested that Trump could suspend the Constitution, declare martial law and "rerun" the election.
  • Trump enlisted Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and other aides to pressure deputy attorney Jeffrey Rosen, who would replace Barr on December 23, and other Justice Department officials to challenge the election results. Jeffrey Clark, acting assistant attorney general for the civil division, approached Rosen with a draft letter addressed to officials in the state of Georgia and requested he sign it. 
  • Michael Flynn called senior Trump intelligence official Ezra Cohen and told him to take extreme actions, including seizing ballots, to prevent the election results from favoring the winner, Joe Biden.
  • On New Year's Eve, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows sent a memo drafted by Trump attorney Jenna Ellis to a top Pence aide containing a detailed plan to overturn the election results.
  • On New Year's Day, White House director of personnel John McEntee sent a series of bullet points via text message to Pence's chief of staff to incorrectly assert that Thomas Jefferson "Used His Position as VP to Win" the 1801 election.
  • Justice Department officials pressured Atlanta's top federal prosecutor, B. J. Pak, to say there had been widespread voter fraud in Georgia, warning him that he would be fired if he did not. The White House forced Pak to resign on January 4, 2021.
Then of course was the attack on the Capitol on January 6. 

This is what we saw, this is what we got, in the last days of the Trump presidency. This will be just the beginning if he is allowed to enter the White House again. He will start his presidency at this red-alert level of lunacy, not the subdued version of Trump we had before. But we seem to have totally forgotten what this was like, what went on for that two and half months, how utterly insane it was, how the country was rudderless, representing a national security threat, his own generals prepared for a showdown.

Nothing has changed.

When the January 6th coup attempt ultimately (and barely) failed, and Joe Biden was finally inaugurated on January 20, 2021, many of us thought this nightmare was finally over. But it is very much ongoing. And nothing has changed to stop it from succeeding next time. None of the leaders of the conspiracy have suffered any real consequences. Findings released January 3, 2022 from a Reuters/Ipsos Poll show Trump’s favorability rating among Republicans stands at 82%. A Washington Post survey reports that one in three Americans say violence against government is justified. Other polls have found that more than half of Republicans believe the big lie that the presidential election was "stolen".

We were not saved by the "rule of law." Pundits keep telling us, even in the long list of dirty deeds listed above, there were no laws broken, or not enough evidence to bring a case anyway. If this holds true, we are no longer a country ruled by laws. Meanwhile, the republicans have been systematically removing everyone that pushed back against the coup and replacing them with Trump loyalists who will be more open to overturning future elections.

Yet we just keep pretending it's politics as usual, just another election cycle. See: A message from the future.




What will life under a Trump autocracy be like?


All indications are that the GOP and the American people are prepared to collude in the transformation to an authoritarian regime, meaning we will be living in a Trump dictatorship, if we haven't already crossed over. So what will that be like? We will have to accept it and make a decision about where we live and how we live.

For most people, every day life will not be that different. Dystopian nightmares come to mind whenever we think about authoritarian regimes, but walking the streets of modern authoritarian states one will see people going about their business as they always have. There are still movies and work and school and shopping. It's mostly boring and tolerable. According to writer G. Willow Wilson:

The difference is the steady disappearance of dissent from the public sphere. Anti-regime bloggers disappear. Dissident political parties are declared “illegal.” Certain books vanish from the libraries.

In Hungary for example:

The transition has been nonviolent, often not even very dramatic. Opponents of the regime are not murdered or imprisoned, although many are harassed with building inspections and tax audits. If they work for the government, or for a company susceptible to government pressure, they risk their jobs by speaking out. Nonetheless, they are free to emigrate anytime they like. Those with money can even take it with them. Day in and day out, the regime works more through inducements than through intimidation. The courts are packed, and forgiving of the regime’s allies. Friends of the government win state contracts at high prices and borrow on easy terms from the central bank. Those on the inside grow rich by favoritism; those on the outside suffer from the general deterioration of the economy. As one shrewd observer told me on a recent visit, “The benefit of controlling a modern state is less the power to persecute the innocent, more the power to protect the guilty.”
- How to Build an Autocracy - The Atlantic 
In a Trump authoritarian regime, for many people, life will go on without much change. Obviously things will get worse for some people, particularly those that have already suffered, such as people of color, women, and immigrants.

Elections won't matter. One could argue that elections haven't mattered for a long time, but in a Trump dictatorship dynasty, they really won't matter. All the power will be centralized in the Trump crime family. There will likely be the appearance of elections but somehow, just like with Putin, Trump always wins in a landslide.

If we look at the recent developments with the impeachment inquiry and the Trump camp's response, they are simply ignoring more and more laws and norms. Their defense is to simply break more laws in the open on live TV in an attempt to normalize it. This is exactly what dictators do.

If this were happening in Honduras, we’d know what to call it. It’s happening here instead, and so we are baffled.

The Trump supporters will be happy with all this, at least until the policies and deficits start to hit them directly, or when they run out of people to blame their plight on. Trump will certainly continue to use fear, the bible, and find scapegoats in attempt to maintain their support, and he may keep their support for many years.

Americans need not look far to see what this kind of boring authoritarianism looks like. As University of Michigan political scientist Robert Mickey has argued, swaths of the US South were effectively under one-party rule during parts of the 20th century.
- Life in authoritarian states is mostly boring and tolerable, Vox
I've accepted that Trump is winning. He controls the military and A.G. Barr controls all law enforcement. What else does he need? He and is legal team are making the case that the law doesn't apply to him. Who is going to stop him? There aren't 20 republican senators with the courage or morals to convict him. They have already said they will settle the impeachment by Christmas in time for the republican primaries, business as usual. They already know how they're going to vote, regardless of the evidence presented at trial.

It is happening here. Make peace with it. 


It's a good time to review this: How to Survive an Authoritarian Government which contains this list:


  1. Assume all communications and activities are monitored.
  2. Do not trust any information released by the government.
  3. Support the production and dissemination of independent media.
  4. Move banned activities and observances underground.
  5. If necessary, change your identity.
  6. If you are able, shield those more vulnerable than yourself.
  7. Have a hiding place or escape plan ready.
  8. Make room for culture, even in dark times.
  9. Support labor unions and work stoppages.
  10. Keep the spirit of resistance alive and never lose hope.